Second Thots

Sometimes one has to step back, take pause, and have some "second thots"

Wednesday, February 21, 2007


I'm still predicting a Tory-NDP deal on the environment

The recent passing of the opposition bill on Kyoto, as well as polls that focus on Dion's perceived lack of leadership, are leading everyone to believe that an election is just around the corner. Well, I'm not buying it.

Here is what Stephen Harper said yesterday on Mike Duffy Live regarding how he sees the future of Parliament:

"For the next year anyway."

For the next year anyway? That's an odd way of putting it. If you notice, he didn't say "for the foreseeable future" or "until the opposition brings us down." He said a year. Sounds like a specific timeline to me.

Furthermore, I don't think it's in the NDP's interest to hang tough with the Kyoto-thumping parties in Parliament, since it provides for them no electoral advantage. Jack Layton already saved the Clean Air Act from extinction by sending it to committee. The only way he differentiates himself on the environment, and gives his party a decent shot at further electoral growth, is by claiming that he brought the environmental bill a lot closer to Kyoto than Harper ever wanted.

In other words, he's "getting things done." Those are words I suspect you'll be hearing a lot from at least two parties in the weeks and months to come — and it ain't the Liberals or the Bloc.

If the NDP gets movement from the Tories on the Clean Air Act, it means they will support the budget. It also means the government won't fall on the issue of the environment.

As much as I personally think the time is ripe for an election, I don't think it's what Harper and Layton have in mind. We'll see.

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