Second Thots

Sometimes one has to step back, take pause, and have some "second thots"

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

 

Even though I hate polls....


What does this poll tell me? It tells me that non-partisan and non-ideological Liberal voters are thinking seriously about giving Prime Minister Harper a majority government. It also tells me that the only thing holding Dion together at the moment is his party's brand name.

What this poll also tells me is that Harper's budget may have been far more clever in design than the punditry gave him credit for — surprise, surprise. But I guess it won't be the last time Danny Williams tells them what to think (just kidding).

You see, what the budget may have done is give non-partisan and non-ideological Liberal voters every reason to think that they can live with this current prime minister, especially compared to the confused messaging they're getting from the Liberal side of the aisle.

Although I hate polls, when I see two from the same pollster only days apart that focus on different ballot questions, then it gives me something to work with. It allows me to see patterns, instead of trying to project majorities based on one volatile margin of error after another.

This latest poll gives us a different angle and shatters any margin of error. I also think that it should provide some serious food for thought for Team Dion. We'll see.


Comments:
What is most significant in the SES poll is that Dion is only favoured by 10.1% of the Quebec respondents, which is the lowest of any other region. This tells us that Quebecers overwhelmingly reject Dion and prefer Harper by 42.5 %.

So where is Dion's greatest strength? Atlantic region by 23% and Ontario by 21.8%, which may reflect brand preference rather than support for Dion. The question is will Canadians in these regions vote for the party rather than the leader?

Stephane Dion must now be considered a lame duck leader by Liberal insiders, and the move to replace him must be growing. Dion's only hope is to precipitate a quick election for the opportunity to present himself to Canadians as a prime minister. His other alternative is to gracefully step aside and allow the Liberal party to find a more acceptable leader.

 
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What polls like this tell me is that bloggers like you are angry idiots.

Seriously, aren't you worried about overdosing on all the biliousness? Being a shit-mouth isn't the same thing as being insightful or non-partisan, you know.

 
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Ah yes, I'M the "shit-mouth". Glad I got that straightened out.

 
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You see, what the budget may have done is give non-partisan and non-ideological Liberal voters every reason to think that they can live with this current prime minister, especially compared to the confused messaging they're getting from the Liberal side of the aisle.

You may be right, but the flip side of this is that Mr. Harper and Mr. Flaherty, with this heavy-spending budget, are taking their base for granted. I'm more than a little discouraged by this budget's use of the same on-board computer that Manley and Martin used post-2000.

 
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Let's all have pity on anonymous 11:16 AM. It can't be easy being a Dion sycophant these days. That our Liberal friend has to resort to vulgar personal insults means that he's unable to find fault with the poll numbers or the analysis thereof.

 
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