Second Thots

Sometimes one has to step back, take pause, and have some "second thots"

Sunday, October 01, 2006


Complexion of race starts to materialize

Putting aside the horse race in Ontario for a moment, the complexion of the contest is becoming clearer as we near the end of Super Weekend. As of right now, here are the standings among all the leadership hopefuls:

Ignatieff: 30.2%

Rae: 19.1%

Kennedy: 17.1%

Dion: 16.5%

Dryden: 4.9%

Volpe: 4.2%

Brison: 4%

Hall Findlay: 1.2%

Undeclared: 2.8%

- 335 out of 467 DSMs reporting.

What I find most interesting is that the three candidates behind Ignatieff — and the only ones other than Ignatieff with any chance of becoming leader now — all represent a left-of-centre political viewpoint that might be considered a contrast with Iggy, especially on foreign policy. Those three candidates have a combined delegate total that easily surpasses that of Ignatieff. However, being able to harness all that support behind one candidate, without losing much of it to Ignatieff, will be the biggest challenge for any Stop Iggy movement that might materialize coming out of this weekend. It makes it even more difficult that none of the three who can lead any such movement seem to have enough strength in enough regions to make the argument that they can lead the party into the next election like Iggy can, who seems strong across the board and across the country.

Should be interesting, though.

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