Monday, February 05, 2007
Election yes, election no. Election yes, election no.
Conventional wisdom (read this blog's subtitle) used to tell us that a federal election this spring was almost certain. That same conventional wisdom now tells us that a federal election this spring is very unlikely. Well, despite what conventional wisdom tells us, I still think Prime Minister Harper wouldn't mind an election sooner rather than later. Maybe NDP leader Jack Layton, too. Fact of the matter is that the Liberals are in no shape to run in a federal election so soon after just picking a new leader. I think that both the Tories and the NDP, as well as the Bloc, wouldn't mind taking advantage of the Liberals at this stage of their rebuilding process.
What will probably save the Liberals from a federal election they're not ready for is a provincial election their Quebec cousins are probably very ready for. It's unlikely that we'll have two elections in Quebec at the same time.