Second Thots

Sometimes one has to step back, take pause, and have some "second thots"

Saturday, April 21, 2007

 

Reason #23948 for why I hate media polls


Question: How does a poll that gives the Tories a 39-29 edge nationally over the Liberals "pour cold water" on a possible election, or suggest "still no majority for Harper?"

Who are they trying to kid?

Not only that, but the Tories are ahead of the Liberals in Quebec and Ontario.

Again, who are they trying to kid?

I suspect that, like me, they're reading the landscape and coming closer to the conclusion that there won't be an election. However, that's the result of political analysis. The numbers, which pollsters and the media should be experts on, actually say the opposite.

Just another reason why I hate media polls. They say whatever people want them to say, including the pollsters and the media. Next.

UPDATE (8:26 am): By the way, the biggest reason for my evolving change of heart regarding election timing comes, again, as the result of my analysis on the environmental file.

In short, I believe that nothing would be more punishing to Stephane Dion's leadership credibility than a Tory-NDP deal on the environment, which would subsequently leave the government in power until at least the fall.

It would also subsequently leave Dion at the mercy of party critics who would rightly conclude that Dion just got skunked on the one issue he tried to make his own by attaching himself to a third-rate party.

As much as all the parties are huffing and puffing on the environment right now, no one benefits more from getting something done than does Jack Layton. It is the only way he differentiates himself from Elizabeth May and Stephane Dion. Believe it!

UPDATE (8:32 am): Oh, and if you still don't believe me, you might want to ask yourself why Stephen Harper's people told CTV (either Robert Fife or Craig Oliver, I can't remember which one) that the prime minister is 100% against an election only after Dion announced his alliance with May.

In other words, as some have been suggesting, Harper has done his best to sucker Dion into election readiness mode, then embarked on an effort to pull the rug from under him by working to not have an election.

As always, stay tuned.


Comments:
"Oh, and if you still don't believe me, you might want to ask yourself why Stephen Harper's people told CTV (either Robert Fife or Craig Oliver, I can't remember which one) that the prime minister is 100% against an election only after Dion announced his alliance with May."

Harper has been saying, repeatedly, since Christmas at least, that he doesn't want an election, but if the opposition causes one, he'll live with it.

That has never, ever changed. The media, however, refuse(d) to believe it. There was even one show (either Duffy or QP), where Fife asked if they were just not believing it because they are so used to being lied to?

Of course, now that Dion has tied his fortunes to May, there is even MORE reason to not go to the polls, so Dion can continue to implode.

 
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