Second Thots

Sometimes one has to step back, take pause, and have some "second thots"

Wednesday, January 09, 2008


What should this tell you?

If you can ignore the predictably torqued lead in this CP article, it shows that Stephen Harper's Tories are now ahead of the Dion Liberals: 37-30.

What should this tell you?

Well, if I may, it should tell you that the narrative you keep hearing about the popularity of the government is a misleading one.

We always hear about it when they hit the low 30's. Yet we don't hear about it when they start approaching the 40's, which they often have while in government.

So, I'll ask again: What should this tell you?

Well — again, if I may — I think what it should tell you is that there's only one federal party — in a minority Parliament ripe with mediocre polling numbers — that's shown the ability to increase its popularity to levels it wants heading into a possible election.

That's why I think Harper was as confident, relaxed — and, yes, even charming — as I've ever seen him while he held Christmas interviews with the press a couple of weeks ago.

While we always hear about the lows, Harper has also shown that he can hit the highs, too. Only Green partly leader Elizabeth May can say that among all the other major federal parties, and she doesn't even have a seat in Parliament.

It's enough to make a usually bland and aloof prime minister look cheerful and engaging. Hardly the worried guy that the press thinks he should be. They only look at half the polls, and get carried away by CP leads.

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